Following Mitchell's Email call to action and Scott MacGregor's response, I've seen here and there articles and blogs posts about the future of Thunderbird. I'll save my ideas about the future of Thunderbird for a later post, and I'll focus on what opposes Firefox and the Web on one side to Thunderbird and email on the other side. I'm writing this because many people assume that since they are both Open-Source / Free-Software products by Mozilla, they must be treated the same way. I don't think it's true, and here is why:
Interoperability issues
Email is actually interoperable. Whatever the email client and the operating system one uses whether on the sender or recipient's side, an email message is decently transmitted. It's not absolutely perfect yet, but email works. I don't have to bother whether the recipient is using an email client or another, whether it's a Webmail client or a fat client, it just works.
For the Web, it's a totally different story, and interoperability is a must. For years, there were many sites that could be used only if you were running Internet Explorer on Windows. Firefox' market share has changed this in many countries, enabling Safari and Opera users to have a better experience with their browser of choice. There are counter-examples to this, for example in South Korea, where IE still has a monopoly.
The state of existing products before TB and FX arrived
IE was broken. Seriously. Pop-ups, adware, spyware, viruses, all of them have made the Web experience a nightmare. People were fed up with it. Many people where about to turn their back on the Web, because it was not keeping its promises, thanks to a monopoly not taking care of its customers. When Firefox was released, it was a big relief for computer-savvy people. Firefox was an instant success, even before it reached its 1.0 version.
For email and Thunderbird, things were very different. Outlook Express was less of a broken product, compared to Internet Explorer. And there were vendors interested in selling messaging solutions, including Microsoft with Exchange/Outlook.
Market growth and demographics
I live in Firefox and Thunderbird. These are two of my applications that are always open on my laptop. But I'm not an average user. People who are new to the Internet need a browser, it's a given. But not everybody needs an email account. I know, if you're reading this blog, you have an email account. But for the younger generation, email is boring, very passé. Young folks do use the Internet to communicate, but it's mostly via social networks, MySpace, Facebook, Twitter, IM, SMS-Texting and so forth. In their eyes, email is for old people in offices. And those who actually use their email account, Webmail is the way to go. Hotmail (or whatever it's called now), GMail, Yahoo Mail are much more successful than "Fat clients" with POP or IMAP accounts.
Ability for users to try a new product
Trying out a browser is easy (provided that you know what "browser" means and how to download and install software, that is). And it's easy to get back to your old product if the new one is disappointing. The worst case scenario is that bookmarks you added in Firefox won't appear if you switch back to IE. It's a very little price to pay, so people are likely to try Firefox, as they know they'll be able to switch back.
For email, things are much more worrisome for users, with need to migrate email archives (and what is going to happen if there is not enough disk space during migration?). And if I'm not convinced by Thunderbird, is there an import filter so that I can migrate back to my old email client?
Communities
There is a Web industry, and it's booming. Big established players and start-ups are competing and innovating. All of them depend on secure and innovative browsers to deliver their products.
I'm sure there are start-ups about email, but I don't think they're as exciting and numerous compared to the Web space. Therefore, everybody joining the Mozilla project does it for the browser, not the email client.
Overall Stakes
Maybe I'm exaggerating, but I think that more and more, a computer without a browser and Internet access is useless. If I had to get rid of all my applications but one, I'd save the browser and switch to Webmail instantly, and I'd use Wikis, Google Spreadsheet and similar systems.
Number of users
Most of the factors listed combined together indicate two things:
- Thunderbird and email is important for many of us.
- Firefox and the Web are way more important for all of us.
Numbers of users reflect this in a very clear way: there are more than 100 millions Firefox users worldwide, and probably around 5 millions Thunderbird users.
As a conclusion, I'd like to quote Web Worker Daily:
It's hard when no matter how good you are, your brother is still everyone's darling.
Email is important, Thunderbird is important. Let's make sure that we together find a solution so that Thunderbird can reach its full potential, despite Firefox' success.
11 réactions
1 De Cirdan - 28/07/2007, 18:22
Pour ce qui est de la phase de test, il est possible de procéder de la manière suivante :
> On laisse les anciens messages dans le client de messagerie précédent.
> On importe uniquement les paramètres de comptes
> on active l'option "laisser les messages sur le serveur" et "jusqu'à leur suppression"
> on teste Thunderbird. S'il plaît, on le garde et on importe les anciens messages, sinon, on reprend le précédent qui sera toujours en mesure d'importer les nouveaux emails via le serveur de messagerie.
On peut envisager de proposer la chose durant le premier lancement de TB, en indiquant que seuls les message que l'utilisateur désignera comme étant des spams seront supprimés au niveau du serveur (pour éviter à avoir à faire deux fois le tri...).
2 De Glazblog - 28/07/2007, 19:53
Answer to Tristan Nitot (was: thunderbird)
Tristan wrote today: " Email is actually interoperable. Whatever the email client and the operating system one uses whether on the sender or recipient's side, an email message is decently transmitted. It's not absolutely perfect yet, but email...
3 De Pierre - 29/07/2007, 14:05
Salut,
Qu'en est-il de Qualcomm et de son projet d'Eudora à base de code Thunderbird (appelé Penelope et soutenu, semble-t-il, par Mozilla http://wiki.mozilla.org/Penelope ) ?
Qualcomm n'est pas une petite société insignifiante et pourrait avoir les reins assez solides pour fournir de la ressource (dev', $...) et péréniser un bon logiciel de mail, non ?
Ce ne sont pas des perdreaux de six semaines dans ce domaine, hein...
Ou, au contraire, si Thunderbird n'arrivait pas à trouver des ressources hors Mozilla.com, les projets Penelope et aussi SeaMonkey (qui utilise peut-être des gros bouts de Thunderbird) ne seraient-ils pas impactés ?
M'enfin, je trouve que le but que se donnait Mozilla de "promouvoir le choix et l'innovation sur Internet" en prend un coup sur cette décision qui tend à privilégier le seul Web... Ce n'est pas, AMHA, parce que la jeune génération tend à utiliser et connaitre le seul Web pour communiquer et consommer, qu'il ne faut pas continuer à innover et promouvoir les choix offerts par les autres ressources d'Internet, ni céder qu'à une logique de "marché"...
Dans le monde des logiciels pas Libres et à très faible part de marché, je continue à croire que la vision d'Opera par exemple , qui intègre toujours un maximum de fonctionnalités pour permettre une utilisation très vaste de l'Internet depuis n'importe quelle plateforme, peut davantage être qualifiée d'innovante et d'éclectique :D
@+
--
Pierre
4 De Mark Dowling - 29/07/2007, 18:34
Bonjour Tristan
I disagree (in much the same way as Daniel G does on his blog) with your contention that e-mail "just works".
The recent controversy concerning Sender ID and SPF is one example that shows the email space is not settled, and it would be better to have an organisation committed to interoperability involved in the evolution of email - I firmly believe the Thunderbird participation in these discussions would be taken more seriously as a full partner in MoFo rather than as an unwanted child or worse a separate foundation which has to build its own new identity rather than having contributed to the development of Mozilla's.
As you point out, IE has a monopoly (for now) in South Korea - but that's all the more reason to push TB in that market as a Mozilla beachhead until such time as the commercial market lets ActiveX go and FF can compete on a fair and even basis. That's not going to happen as a community product, it can only happen with a parity of effort in one of the most internet focused markets in the world.
Your point about IM/Twitter etc. is well taken - and yet virtually all of those services you mention require an email address to register. They are also dependent on trust in third parties to secure your communications - assuming they even use HTTPS.
5 De SansFiltre - 29/07/2007, 22:43
Courrier et compatibilité
quand je lis "Email is actually interoperable" chez Tristan, mon sang ne fait qu'un tour. Et aujourd'hui, bien que regrétant le ton habituel de ses billets, je suis d'accord avec Daniel Glazman quand il dit "This is a joke I presume ?". Ayant......
6 De Zenitram - 30/07/2007, 09:38
Une erreur, grosse erreur... Le domaine de thunderbird n'est pas si inter-opérable.
le mail, oui.
Mais aujourd'hui, un lecteur de mail doit aussi faire un bon carnet d'adresse (celui de TB est très pauvre), et un bon gestionnaire d'agenda partagé (à quand ligthning???)
Et il n'y a pas aujourd'hui de norme bien établie (LDAP pour le carnet d'adresses certes, mais aucun FAI ne fourni ça! Et pour l'agenda, iCal mais il y a encore du boulot...).
Il y a du travail d'intégration client /serveur pour TB, beaucoup de travail, pour que ce soit un client correct. il y a encore du chemin face à Outlook et son "standard".
Espérons que TB suive un meilleur chemin que celui actuel!
7 De HT - 30/07/2007, 19:18
There are actually lots of different email servers, using several different protocols. It is not trivial to create an email client that works well with all of them. Also, due to the huge amount of spam I'd say email is getting more broken every day. There is a lot of research and experimentation going into solving the spam problem, but it is an evolving problem. It will need work to keep up.
You also seem to belittle 5 million users. That is HUGE. If I could write an application that was used by one million people I would be dancing in joy (and maybe getting rich).
8 De L©S ßlog - CyberSDF - 31/07/2007, 19:52
Mozilla Fundation is dead, Long live Firefox Fundation
Tout commence en 1998 avec la création de la Mozilla Organization. A cette époque, le but était de continuer sur la lancée de Netscape (le produit) en développant une suite logicielle libre permettant de surfer sur le web, lire et envoyer des......
9 De L©S ßlog - CyberSDF - 31/07/2007, 19:57
Mozilla Fundation is dead, Long live Firefox Fundation
Derrière ce titre accrocheur se cache une histoire de pratiquement 10 années ou une poignée de passionnés à voulu envers et contre tout offrir au grand publique une alternative gratuite et libre pour accéder à divers services de l'internet....
10 De loufoque - 01/08/2007, 19:57
> And those who actually use their email account, Webmail is the way to go. Hotmail (or whatever it's called now), GMail, Yahoo Mail are much more successful than "Fat clients" with POP or IMAP accounts.
What a joke.
What is this based on?
A real email client, with an IMAP account (POP is crap, but it seems providers don't really get this) is way superior to any webmail. Simply because the fact that exchanges are made through a specialized standard protocol is much more pertinent and flexible than having to do unrelated HTTP requests and be restrained by the forms and the functionality the web service has thought of providing.
It allows, moreover, to be used with a lot of filtering and other tools, since it is a standard and well-known protocol.
Webmail is just what you use when you need to access your email quickly on a temporary machine. It, by the way, works way better with IMAP. (why yahoo and gmail only provide pop is a mystery, even though yahoo provides imap for iphone users)
The fact that webmails are usually centralized on one single account is already an obvious proof that it is flawed. What a email client does is managing a lot of different accounts and mailboxes on equal footing, using filtering rules defined by the user etc.
Any person that uses a webmail simply doesn't take his email seriously.
11 De Jigho - 02/08/2007, 09:31
Bonjour Tristan,
tu dis "Young folks do use the Internet to communicate, but it's mostly via social networks, MySpace, Facebook, Twitter, IM, SMS-Texting and so forth."
Peut-on comprendre que Mozilla va chercher à s'implanter dans ce "nouveaux" domaines ? Un IM open-source soutenu par la puissance financiere de Mozilla, ça pourrait être bien ! Une récupération de Pidgin en vue ?
Amicalement,
Jigho